Antares LK419 north of the Shetlands searching for Mackerel
The Irish and UK pelagic fleets could be in for a better 2027, led by mackerel, but only if the coastal states follow the scientific advice and sit down to agree realistic quotas. Scientists at the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) have advised that no more than 352,938 tonnes of mackerel should be caught in the north-east Atlantic in 2027. That is 102% up on the 2026 advice of 174,357 tonnes, but still well under half of the roughly 809,000 tonnes caught in 2025.
ICES advice for 2027 at a glance (tonnes, with the change measured against the 2026 advice)
| Stock | 2027 advice (tonnes) | Change on 2026 advice |
|---|---|---|
| Mackerel | 352,938 | +102% |
| Blue Whiting | 1,064,191 | +25% |
| Norwegian Spring-Spawning Herring | 588,004 | +10% |
| Horse Mackerel (scad), Western | 79,223 | +7% |
| Horse Mackerel (scad), North Sea | 0 | no change (also zero for 2025 and 2026) |
| Boarfish | 33,543 | +13% |
Why the Mackerel advice has risen
A stronger batch of young fish born in 2024 has shown up in this year’s surveys, and the fish are heavier at each age. ICES puts the breeding stock at about 3.2 million tonnes. That is only just above the minimum safe level of 3.07 million tonnes, and being above it is what allows more fishing under ICES’s rule: the fishing pressure built into the advice has roughly doubled. If the advice is followed, ICES expects about 3.35 million tonnes in 2028, still short of the 4.12 million tonnes it wants for full, sustainable fishing.
The catch: everyone has to play by it
There is no international agreement on a total mackerel catch, so each coastal state sets its own quota. Since 2010, the combined quotas have exceeded the advice by 39% on average. For 2026, the UK, Norway, the Faroes and Iceland agreed a combined limit of 299,010 tonnes, 72% above the advice. The EU was not part of that deal and objected. It later set its own 2026 quota in line with the higher figure. ICES expects about 398,000 tonnes to be taken in 2026, more than double the advice. The 2027 advice is about 11% below that, and 18% above the four-party limit. A total every party sticks to would be a real change.
Industry reaction
Dominic Rihan, chief executive of the Killybegs Fishermen’s Organisation (KFO), gave the advice a cautious welcome. “After several years of bad news, the advice comes as welcome news,” he said. He added that the increases for key stocks will bring a minor level of stability to the pelagic fleet and much-needed increased quotas for 2027.
The KFO said measured against the final 2026 limit, the mackerel advice is up 18%, not 102%. It said the EU continues to pay the price for overfishing of up to 40% by other coastal states, and that fishing by Russia, Iceland and Greenland has grown in northern waters, particularly in summer in international waters. ICES figures show 33% of the 2025 mackerel catch was taken inside the international areas, up from 14% in 2024. KFO chair Ciaran Doherty said the industry is still not out of the woods on mackerel, and that firm action is needed against other nations’ unsustainable unilateral quotas.
The KFO also raised concerns about the Marine Institute‘s summer acoustic survey, while praising the institute’s wider work. It said ICES left the survey’s data out of the boarfish assessment, and that indications are it underestimated boarfish shoals. ICES’s boarfish advice says no acoustic survey index was available for 2026 because of technical issues. The KFO called for a full, transparent review, and urged the Minister to publish the Berkery report.
The Scottish Pelagic Sustainability Group (SPSG), which represents mackerel catchers and processors, welcomed the advice but said there is still a way to go to rebuild the stock. It called on the EU and Greenland to join a full quota-sharing agreement. The group said the improving stock vindicates the decision by the UK, Norway, the Faroes and Iceland to weigh the livelihoods of fishing communities alongside the science when setting the 2026 limit. ICES, however, expects 2026 catches to be more than double its advice, and warns that ignoring the advice lowers the chance of recovery.
The North Atlantic Pelagic Advocacy Group (NAPA), a coalition of 58 seafood businesses, called on all seven coastal states to agree a comprehensive sharing deal that keeps combined catches within the advice. It said the 2027 advice should be a floor for responsible management, not a ceiling to push against, and warned that the higher advice must not be read as a licence to continue excessive fishing pressure. It pointed out that the mackerel improvement came despite a 2026 limit more than double the advice, and that the stock is only 4.5% above the limit.
The Norwegian Institute of Marine Research said the stock is just above the limit, which is why ICES could advise a much higher catch. Its mackerel stock scientist said there is still a 33% risk of it falling back below the limit in 2028 if the advice is followed.
The warnings
- The stock is still being fished harder than it should be.
- If catches stay at the 2026 level, ICES puts the chance of the stock falling below the minimum safe level in 2028 at 36%. At the advised catch it is 33%.
- The better young-fish estimate rests on a single survey and has not yet been confirmed by catch data.
Rebuilding rules
At the request of the UK, Norway, Iceland, Greenland and the Faroes, ICES tested a set of “rebuilding” fishing rules. All of them stopped the stock shrinking in the short term. None got it back above 4.12 million tonnes within ten years, because the tests assumed the poor young-fish numbers of recent years would continue. In a gloomier test, the stock kept falling even with no fishing at all. ICES stresses these results are comparisons, not forecasts.
Where Irish and UK boats stand
ICES estimates that Irish boats caught 39,648 tonnes of mackerel in 2025 and UK boats 182,052 tonnes, about 5% and 22% of the total. Irish catches have fallen every year since 2020, when they were 74,114 tonnes. Official Irish figures show 40,976 tonnes landed in 2025, 3% above ICES’s estimate and down from 56,972 tonnes in 2023. That counts landings by all vessels into Irish ports plus Irish boats landing abroad, not catch.
ICES advice for the whole mackerel stock, alongside Irish and UK landings. Landings are a part of the stock, not a measure of compliance with the advice. Sources: ICES, Sea-Fisheries Protection Authority, Marine Management Organisation.Official UK figures for 2024 show 233,588 tonnes of mackerel landed by UK vessels, 3.6% above ICES’s 225,562 tonnes. The official 2025 figure is due in October. Almost half (48%) of the UK fleet’s 2024 mackerel was landed abroad, down from 61% in 2020.
Scottish vessels dominate the UK pelagic catching sector. ICES figures show them behind more than 90% of the UK’s blue whiting and boarfish catches in 2025. Provisional official figures show Scottish vessels landed 182,000 tonnes of mackerel in 2025, 45% of it abroad, and 354,000 tonnes of pelagic fish overall.
Ireland’s mackerel quota has fallen from 78,052 tonnes in 2020 to 18,705 tonnes at the start of 2026, a drop of 76%. Over the same period, ICES’s advice for the whole stock fell from 922,064 tonnes (for 2020) to 174,357 tonnes (for 2026). The all-areas mackerel quota on official figures, which covers more fishing areas and includes in-year changes, is 23,241 tonnes. The UK’s share of the four-party deal was 27.83%, about 83,200 tonnes. Quotas for 2027 will be set at the December Fisheries Council and in talks between the coastal states, and may differ from the advice.
The Irish fleet so far in 2026
Irish boats had landed 11,108 tonnes of mackerel by 25 September, 48% of the 23,241-tonne all-areas quota. Irish boats target mackerel mainly in winter, as the fish migrate south to spawn, so most of the fishery is still to come. Blue whiting is almost used up, at 99%, boarfish stands at 78% and western scad at 38%. Herring in areas 1 and 2 is untouched. All 2026 figures are provisional, and the quotas are not final.
What the advice means for the other stocks
All figures are ICES advice for 2027, with the change measured against the 2026 advice.
Blue Whiting (up 25% to 1,064,191 tonnes): The biggest rise the management plan allows, for a large stock of about 5 million tonnes of breeding fish against a safe trigger level of 2.25 million. The catch is that fishing pressure is above the sustainable level, and catches have beaten the advice every year since 2018. The 2025 catch was about 1.78 million tonnes against advice of 1.45 million. The 2024 young fish are strong, but the 2022 and 2023 batches are small, so ICES warns the stock could fall quickly. Irish boats caught 54,256 tonnes in 2025. Ireland’s starting 2026 quota is 30,188 tonnes, down from 51,263 in 2025. The North Atlantic Pelagic Advocacy Group said its members may not be able to take advantage of the bigger advice, because the blue whiting fishery improvement project is about to end.
Norwegian Spring-Spawning Herring (up 10% to 588,004 tonnes): Fishing pressure is within sustainable limits, and the chance of the stock falling below its danger level in 2028 is about 4%. Catches have exceeded the advice every year since 2013, though the 2025 overshoot was small (about 419,000 tonnes against advice of about 402,000). Irish boats took none in 2025 and UK boats about 5,250 tonnes.
Horse Mackerel (scad), Western Stock (up 7% to 79,223 tonnes): The steadiest news of the lot. The stock is healthy, and the 2025 catch of about 61,500 tonnes was inside the 75,545-tonne quota. About 37,600 tonnes of it came from waters around Ireland and the Celtic Sea. ICES repeats its concern that scad and two similar species share one combined quota, which makes it hard to control fishing on each.
Horse Mackerel (scad), North Sea (zero catch, again): The breeding stock is below its danger level and is expected to stay there even with no fishing. A 970-tonne bycatch quota has applied since 2025, and sampling of catches has fallen to about 4%. About 1,500 tonnes of scad were caught in the western Channel in 2025, which ICES says could be a large share of North Sea fish. It advises that boats in the Channel avoid it, and says a survey may be needed to keep monitoring the stock.
Boarfish (up 13% to 33,543 tonnes): The stock is healthy and fishing pressure is below the limit. It is mainly an Irish fishery, with Irish boats landing 23,210 of the 33,286 tonnes landed in 2025 and UK boats about 1,430 tonnes. The risk is that it depends on a run of strong years (2017 to 2020), so the advice could fall as those fish age. It is also spreading north into Scottish and North Sea waters. Ireland’s starting 2026 quota is 20,538 tonnes, down from 26,462 in 2025.
Related: ICES issues stark scientific advice for mackerel
Sources: ICES; Sea-Fisheries Protection Authority; Marine Management Organisation; Marine Institute; Scottish Government; Bord Iascaigh Mhara; European Parliament research service; Killybegs Fishermen’s Organisation; Scottish Pelagic Sustainability Group; North Atlantic Pelagic Advocacy Group; Norwegian Institute of Marine Research. Additional sourcing: FiskerForum.
