Drastic cuts in catch advice  for Northeast Atlantic pelagic fisheries

The International Council for the Exploration ⁠​​​​​​​‌​‌‌‌​​‌‌‌​​‌‌‌​​‌‌​​​‌​‌‌‌​⁠of the Sea (ICES) has delivered a sobering assessment of Northeast Atlantic fish stocks, with mackerel facing the most dramatic reduction in fishing advice in recent memory.

Mackerel in Crisis

The mackerel stock is in critical condition, with ICES recommending catches of just 174,357 tonnes for 2026 – a 70% reduction from the 2025 advice of 576,958 tonnes. The stock has fallen below Blim, the biological limit reference point that signals impaired recruitment capacity.

“This is essentially a rescue mission for the stock,” explains the advice document. The recommended fishing mortality is set to achieve only a 50% probability of the spawning stock biomass exceeding Blim by 2027 – essentially a coin flip for recovery.

The situation has been brewing for years. Since 2010, the sum of unilateral quotas has exceeded scientific advice by an average of 39%, with no internationally agreed management plan in place. The absence of coordinated management among coastal states has allowed overfishing to push the stock into dangerous territory.

Fishing pressure remains well above sustainable levels, and the 2025 stock assessment revealed spawning stock biomass at just 2.74 million tonnes – well below the 3.07 million tonne Blim threshold and far from the 4.12 million tonne Btrigger level needed for long-term sustainability.

Blue Whiting Hit Hard

Blue whiting fishermen face their own challenges, with ICES cutting the 2026 advice to 851,344 tonnes – a 41% reduction from 2025’s 1.45 million tonnes. While the stock remains above biological reference points, spawning stock biomass has declined substantially.

The 2025 survey data revealed a 34% drop ⁠​​​​​​​‌​‌‌‌​​‌‌‌​​‌‌‌​​‌‌​​​‌​‌‌‌​⁠in total stock abundance, prompting a major downward revision of recent stock estimates. The fishery has been heavily dependent on the strong 2020 and 2021 year classes, which will comprise 55% of the 2026 catch. Recent recruitment appears weaker, raising concerns about future stock levels.

Like mackerel, blue whiting has suffered from persistent quota overshoots. Despite a management plan agreed by the EU, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway, and UK, unilateral quotas have consistently exceeded advice since 2018.

Boarfish Also Down

Boarfish, while in better shape than its pelagic cousins, faces a 22% cut to 29,720 tonnes for 2026. The stock remains above all reference points, but fishing pressure exceeds sustainable levels and recent survey data shows a downward trend.

Strong recruitment between 2017 and 2020 built up the stock, but these year classes are aging and the fishery will depend on them in coming years. ICES warns that subsequent weak recruitment could cause rapid declines.

The Road Ahead

The dramatic reductions reflect years of management failures across international waters. For mackerel particularly, the forecasted 2027 spawning stock biomass consists of over 40% fish from age classes not yet properly assessed, making recovery predictions highly uncertain.

Without strict adherence to the reduced quotas, all three stocks face prolonged depletion. For mackerel, the stakes couldn’t be higher – the stock is already in the danger zone, and further overfishing could trigger a prolonged collapse.